Round 3 (hypothetical)
P=0.02156
Somebody would get tipped over or picked up.
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Mammoth
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Free_Shipping
#BBChamps
Round 3
P=0.01594
Not sure how to even describe this hypothetical.
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Free_Shipping
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Glitch
Round 3
P=0.01172
Would this matchup be determined by reach?
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Icewave
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Retrograde
Crypto
@natecull
Could be. But that same person is probably not crashing their own company on purpose.
Round 3
P=0.009375
Almost a mirror match? IIRC, this is the hottest flame against the largest flame. Both with lifting mechanisms. One with a renowned driver, the other with a steel chasis.
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Free_Shipping
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Gruff
You know what? Instead of walking down the bracket, let's start with the least-probable matchups and work toward the more realistic ones.
Round 3
P=0.003125 (that's 0.3% folks!)
Who doesn't want to see a flamey boy get suplexed?
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Free_Shipping
https://battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Retrograde
Mammoth>Retrograde P=0.75
Gruff>Glitch P=0.5
Glitch>Gruff P=0.5
Mammoth>Gruff P=0.75 (preliminary: poll not closed yet)
Mammoth>Glitch P=0.6
Mammoth in round 3 P=0.75 * (0.5 * 0.6 + 0.5 * 0.75)= 0.675
I'm rather impressed at how confident we are that Mammoth will go that deep. Anyhow...
Odds of Icewave vs. Mammoth = 0.1875 * 0.675 ≅ 0.1266
AKA there's about a 13% chance we'd see a final match between these 2.
OK check my math. I'm assigning probability of an outcome, given the match happens, equal to the poll results.
I'm assuming that all matches not sharing a bot in common are not correlated (seems fair).
Icewave>Free Shipping P=0.75
Uppercut>Dragon Slayer P=1
Dragon Slayer>Uppercut P=0
Icewave>Uppercut P=0.25
Icewave>Dragon Slayer x (irrelevant as it will be multiplied by 0)
Icewave in round 3 P=0.75*(1*0.25+0*x) = 0.75 * 0.25 = 0.1875
Round 2 isn't fully finished, but the early results are trickling in. We can now start up round 3 predictions.
#BB #BattleBots #BBChampions #BattleBotsChampions #BBCHamps
The only remaining potential round 2 competitor to consider is Retrograde.
With P=0.125, let's predict the fiery bot of steel vs. the forky suplex machine.
Results imply Mammoth is a 3:1 favorite in round 1, while Gruff v Glitch is even-odds.
So, with probability P=0.375 , let's predict this hypothetical
Our results imply there is a 0% chance Dragon Slayer beats Uppercut, so skipping matches involving DS.
Given that, and the 2:3 odds of an Icewave win, there should be a 66% chance of this matchup happening: