Round 3 (hypothetical)

Somebody would get tipped over or picked up.

Round 3

Not sure how to even describe this hypothetical.

Round 3

Would this matchup be determined by reach?


Could be. But that same person is probably not crashing their own company on purpose.

Round 3

Almost a mirror match? IIRC, this is the hottest flame against the largest flame. Both with lifting mechanisms. One with a renowned driver, the other with a steel chasis.

John boosted

You know what? Instead of walking down the bracket, let's start with the least-probable matchups and work toward the more realistic ones.

Round 3
P=0.003125 (that's 0.3% folks!)

Who doesn't want to see a flamey boy get suplexed?

Round 3

Float like a butterfly VS. Sting like a bee

Round 3

Fist of Steel vs. Body of Steel

Mammoth>Retrograde P=0.75
Gruff>Glitch P=0.5
Glitch>Gruff P=0.5
Mammoth>Gruff P=0.75 (preliminary: poll not closed yet)
Mammoth>Glitch P=0.6
Mammoth in round 3 P=0.75 * (0.5 * 0.6 + 0.5 * 0.75)= 0.675

I'm rather impressed at how confident we are that Mammoth will go that deep. Anyhow...

Odds of Icewave vs. Mammoth = 0.1875 * 0.675 ≅ 0.1266
AKA there's about a 13% chance we'd see a final match between these 2.

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OK check my math. I'm assigning probability of an outcome, given the match happens, equal to the poll results.
I'm assuming that all matches not sharing a bot in common are not correlated (seems fair).

Icewave>Free Shipping P=0.75
Uppercut>Dragon Slayer P=1
Dragon Slayer>Uppercut P=0
Icewave>Uppercut P=0.25
Icewave>Dragon Slayer x (irrelevant as it will be multiplied by 0)
Icewave in round 3 P=0.75*(1*0.25+0*x) = 0.75 * 0.25 = 0.1875

Round 3
A bot that hits up hard vs a bot that's already up.

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The first potential fantasy matchup is a big punch against a little slider.


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Round 2 isn't fully finished, but the early results are trickling in. We can now start up round 3 predictions.

And the other possible backward matchup: Glitch!

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The only remaining potential round 2 competitor to consider is Retrograde.
With P=0.125, let's predict the fiery bot of steel vs. the forky suplex machine.

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And with P=0.375, this is a round 2 hypothetical

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Another hypothetical round 2, with P=0.125

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Results imply Mammoth is a 3:1 favorite in round 1, while Gruff v Glitch is even-odds.

So, with probability P=0.375 , let's predict this hypothetical

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Our results imply there is a 0% chance Dragon Slayer beats Uppercut, so skipping matches involving DS.
Given that, and the 2:3 odds of an Icewave win, there should be a 66% chance of this matchup happening:

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John's choices:


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