Round 3 (hypothetical)
P=0.02156

Somebody would get tipped over or picked up.

battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Mam
battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Fre

Round 3
P=0.01594

Not sure how to even describe this hypothetical.

battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Fre
battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Gli

Round 3
P=0.01172

Would this matchup be determined by reach?

battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Ice
battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Ret

Crypto 

@natecull
Could be. But that same person is probably not crashing their own company on purpose.

Round 3
P=0.009375

Almost a mirror match? IIRC, this is the hottest flame against the largest flame. Both with lifting mechanisms. One with a renowned driver, the other with a steel chasis.

battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Fre
battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Gru

John boosted

You know what? Instead of walking down the bracket, let's start with the least-probable matchups and work toward the more realistic ones.

Round 3
P=0.003125 (that's 0.3% folks!)

Who doesn't want to see a flamey boy get suplexed?

battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Fre
battlebots.fandom.com/wiki/Ret

Round 3
P=0.243

Float like a butterfly VS. Sting like a bee

Round 3
P=0.143

Fist of Steel vs. Body of Steel

Mammoth>Retrograde P=0.75
Gruff>Glitch P=0.5
Glitch>Gruff P=0.5
Mammoth>Gruff P=0.75 (preliminary: poll not closed yet)
Mammoth>Glitch P=0.6
Mammoth in round 3 P=0.75 * (0.5 * 0.6 + 0.5 * 0.75)= 0.675

I'm rather impressed at how confident we are that Mammoth will go that deep. Anyhow...

Odds of Icewave vs. Mammoth = 0.1875 * 0.675 ≅ 0.1266
AKA there's about a 13% chance we'd see a final match between these 2.

Show thread

OK check my math. I'm assigning probability of an outcome, given the match happens, equal to the poll results.
I'm assuming that all matches not sharing a bot in common are not correlated (seems fair).

Icewave>Free Shipping P=0.75
Uppercut>Dragon Slayer P=1
Dragon Slayer>Uppercut P=0
Icewave>Uppercut P=0.25
Icewave>Dragon Slayer x (irrelevant as it will be multiplied by 0)
Icewave in round 3 P=0.75*(1*0.25+0*x) = 0.75 * 0.25 = 0.1875

Round 3
P=0.075
A bot that hits up hard vs a bot that's already up.

Show thread

The first potential fantasy matchup is a big punch against a little slider.

P=0.1125

Show thread

Round 2 isn't fully finished, but the early results are trickling in. We can now start up round 3 predictions.

And the other possible backward matchup: Glitch!

Show thread

The only remaining potential round 2 competitor to consider is Retrograde.
With P=0.125, let's predict the fiery bot of steel vs. the forky suplex machine.

Show thread

And with P=0.375, this is a round 2 hypothetical

Show thread

Another hypothetical round 2, with P=0.125

Show thread

Results imply Mammoth is a 3:1 favorite in round 1, while Gruff v Glitch is even-odds.

So, with probability P=0.375 , let's predict this hypothetical

Show thread

Our results imply there is a 0% chance Dragon Slayer beats Uppercut, so skipping matches involving DS.
Given that, and the 2:3 odds of an Icewave win, there should be a 66% chance of this matchup happening:

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John's choices:

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